Solar Water Heaters?

I just returned from testifying for my first time at a county council meeting.  I spoke in support of a measure that could ultimately result in forcing Kaua'i to comply with a Hawai'i state law which mandates a solar water heater on all new homes.  Homes that have other propane appliances or can prove that solar is not cost effective for them can receive a variance for a tankless propane system.  In a shortsighted move, the measure was voted down by the Kaua'i County Council.  The reason being that they don't want to restrict personal choice... which is good.  Because I was starting to think that wearing my seatbelt, not drinking and driving, and having to follow a so-called "speed-limit" were huge infractions on my personal liberty.  Oh yeah, and that huge hole in the ozone layer which is now closing... what is our world coming to when CFCs cannot be manufactured?  Let the kids deal with it, I want my Freon.   

I am speaking here for the first time.  I do not represent anyone.  Though I am a member of the younger generation whom everyone loves to speak for.  I am here to say I am disappointed in the council’s decision last week to reject councilwoman Yukimura’s proposal.  Nearly every council member at last week’s meeting claimed that we need to “get off of oil and be self sustaining,” right before saying that they don’t want to restrict personal choice.  I’m sorry, but you can’t have one without the other.  The seven of you are up there because the people of Kaua’I elected you to make the hard decisions for us.  Collectively, for a variety of reasons, it’s in our best interest to move beyond fossil fuels.  However, until we can attach the inherent negative externalities of fossil fuels to their price, it is rarely in our financial short term interest.

A few things stood out to me from last week’s presentations.  I am not an accountant nor an expert on gas, but as a member of the younger generation, I am pretty proficient with Google.  Councilwoman Yukimura claimed that a solar water heater is cheaper over time than the alternatives, and the Gas Company claimed the opposite. The Gas Company used a 4% interest rate on their cost of money calculations and Councilwoman Yukimura didn’t add in the cost of money. Which accounted for the huge discrepancy between councilwoman Yukimura’s numbers and their numbers.  When questioned on the 4% interest rate, the Gas Company said that they were just following federal guidelines. However, according to the Federal Office of Management and Budget, they should be using a more realistic 1.3% interest rate.  Which would eliminate much of the discrepancy between their numbers.

Further, any projections on the price of fossil fuels are going to be extremely subjective.  Propane is a byproduct of natural gas extraction.  The US produces 90% of its own natural gas, and most of the rest comes from Canada.  Despite a record number of new wells drilled every year, Canada’s natural gas production is declining at an average rate of 7.5%.  And it is widely expected to disappear completely by 2030.  In the US, there has been a 200% increase in new wells since 1991.  But production has only gone up 15%.  Even though we are drilling more wells, we are extracting less gas.  Meaning we are working exponentially harder for ever diminishing returns.  

An obvious conclusion is that the price of Propane is not going to be stable for long.  Which is not the same cheap and secure future that the Gas Company has outlined for us.

In the end though, the financial analyses are irrelevant.  You can’t put a price on climate stability or the environment.

As much as we’d all like to believe otherwise, climate change is occurring faster than any models have predicted and the affects will be devastating for Kaua’i and the world.  We can slow the trend, but it will take a heroic effort on everyone’s part.  Mandating solar water heaters on Kaua’i will just be a drop in a very large bucket, but it is one of a million necessary steps that we all have to take.   Each gallon of propane burned creates 12 pounds of Carbon Dioxide.  The average Kaua’i family would probably use somewhere around 5 gallons of propane per week with even the most efficient tankless propane water heater. That is 720 pounds of carbon emissions per year per family. Add in the liquefaction, gasification, and transportation of the propane to Hawai’i and it amounts to nearly 1000 pounds of carbon dioxide emissions per tankless propane water heater.  The numbers on a traditional gas water heater are 22% more.  There is no reason that we should be emitting that much carbon when alternatives exist.

To be honest, I just purchased a gas on demand water heater.  As I was shopping around for a photovoltaic system for my house, I asked multiple solar contractors for a quote on a solar water heater.  All of them flat out told me that they couldn’t compete against a tankless system.  So, with a limited budget and limited research, I went for the option with the cheaper up-front cost.  Now, three months later, I regret the decision.  I didn’t do the research that I should have done.  I didn’t understand the volatile and unpredictable nature of natural gas reserves.  And most of all, I didn’t understand that I would be contributing to the perpetuation of our unsustainable fossil fueled lifestyles.  As an individual it can seem hard to make a difference.  But as a community, we can have a real impact.  Not only on reducing our collective footprint, but by being an example for the rest of the world.  And if we forget that, it’s game over.  Please, for myself, for every other youth on this island, and for our future children, I beg you to make the hard decision. Not just this time around, but every time.  We won’t get a 2nd chance.